A lot of things have transpired over the last 48 hours to completely change the dynamics of the race for the Republican nomination:

1.  Rick Santorum was declared the winner in the Iowa Caucuses showing that Mitt Romney is in fact beatable.

2.  Rick Perry has bailed out of the Presidential race, endorsing Newt Gingrich, and saying that he will actively campaign for the Speaker.

   3.  The most current polls in South Carolina show that Romney's support is starting to erode, while the same polls are showing that Gingrich's is growing daily.  Four polls, Clemson/Palmetto, Public Policy Polling,  Rasmussen and Insider Advantage,  show Gingrich ahead of Romney and the rest of the field.

4. Newt's ex-wife, along with the help of ABC News, tried to torpedo his candidacy with a last minute interview that was a complete rehash of a story already published and out for several months.

5.  The last debate before todays South Carolina primary was clearly won by everyone in the room, except for Mitt Romney, who at best debated just above Texas Congressman Ron Paul.  Further, Romney has fumbled the ball completely on what is supposed to be his strength: his business career.  Bain Capital has been a tremendous thorn in his side and now comes a report that Romney has put millions of dollars into Cayman Island banks.  I sincerely think there are more people who are concerned about Romney's business problems than they are about Newt's marital problems.

6.  In an interview yesterday with Laura Ingraham, Romney stated flatly that the economy has done better since President Obama has been at the helm.  Listen below at about the 5:45 mark.  Do you think Obama might use that in a campaign ad comes this fall?

With all of that being said, the path to the Republican nomination just became a lot clearer for Newt Gingrich to pull of one of the biggest upsets in political history.

Should Gingrich win South Carolina, he will get a huge boost for the Florida primary scheduled for January 31st.  Should Gingrich be able to capitalize on it and win the Sunshine State, his stock will go up infinitely heading into Super Tuesday.  This is all about delegate count however, with the nominee needing 1144 total to claim the nomination.  There are several smaller contests in between Florida and Super Tuesday in which Romney and Ron Paul will probably score well, however, should Rick Santorum give up his quest after Florida, the Conservative vote will no longer be split which will give Gingrich clear victories in a few of the more Conservative states.  At this point, Mitt Romney's best friend is Rick Santorum...so long as he stays in the race.


Super Tuesday itself will clear up a lot of the murkiness surrounding the nomination with Georgia and Tennessee being two of the biggest prizes on that day.  Both will go to Gingrich with Romney taking Massachusetts, Vermont and possibly Ohio.  Look for Ron Paul to take Virginia as he and Romney will be the only candidates on the ballot there and I smell a huge protest vote coming against Romney.  North Dakota and Oklahoma are up in the air.

Romney, and even Paul for that matter, have much better nationwide organizations than Gingrich.  There's no doubt about that.  It has to be remembered however, that Gingrich has been in the political game for a long time and there are a lot of politicians out there who still owe him political debts, Georgia Governor Nathan Deal being one of them.  Deal was a very early supporter of The Speaker and has stood by him when many others have jumped ship.  Deal's loyalty comes from the fact that when Deal switched parties, Gingrich was Speaker of the House at the time and allowed Deal to keep his Congressional tenure that he built up while being a Democrat.  I promise you that there are similar stories nationwide that will help Gingrich build a nationwide network very quickly after people realize that Romney isn't going to be walking away with the nomination and also realize that Gingrich is indeed electable and that Romney has as many liabilities as he has assets.  

For many, many years the California primary has been an insignificant entity when it comes to the GOP nomination, however since the delegate count of 1144 may not be reached by any candidate by the time of the California Primary on June 5th, this may well be the deciding factor unless one of the top two candidates fold up their tents by then.  (The fact that Michael Reagan, President Reagan's son, just endorsed Gingrich probably won't hurt Newt's chances in California either..)   If Speaker Gingrich is in the top two at that point, I sincerely doubt you will see him fold.  I do however see the possibility of a Gingrich/Romney ticket that will be very similar to Reagan/Bush in 1980.  George H.W. Bush was the absolute last person that Ronald Reagan wanted on his team.  (He actually wanted Paul Laxalt from Nevada.)  I hope that if I'm correct the Republican party will have the same results:  A landslide victory over a very unpopular incumbent President.