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Florida Predictions: Closer Than You Think

01/31/2012

9 Comments

 
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Ok...I've been wrong before and I will be again....But here's my predictions for tonights' Florida Primary:

Newt will fare much better than expected.  Santorum will do a little better than expected as well.  Romney may win this, but it will be a much closer race than most people think.  Almost every poll in South Carolina put Romney almost exactly where he ended up and the same was true in New Hampshire.  To me, this denotes that undecideds are going heavily toward Gingrich, or other candidates as was the case in New Hampshire.  In South Carolina, most of the polls showed Gingrich at least 8% lower than his actual vote totals, with the exception of the Public Policy Poll.  The Real Clear Politics average of all the polls showed Gingrich up 5% in South Carolina, when in fact he won by 12.6%.  Santorum was polled at 11.8%...and finished at 17%...Romney polled at 28.5% but finished below it at 27.8%.  Using the PPP as a guide, as it was the largest poll and most diverse if the pattern holds true for Romney he will finish with 39%.  Gingrich is already leading Tea Party members and Evangelicals, according to the notes in the PPP poll.  If that pattern holds true, then the same results will occur that happened in South Carolina.  Gingrich should increase his total from 31% to 38-39% making this too close to call.  I see Santorum going to 17% with Ron Paul getting about 6% of the total.   
 


Comments

JP
01/31/2012 15:49

You could be right. Romney has dropped from the 40s to the 30s in the two most recent Florida polls. And there is about 5% of voters who are still undecided.

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heidianne jackson link
01/31/2012 16:46

yes, but even if romney wins by 1 vote, he still wins all the delegates. ugh.

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Bill Knowles
01/31/2012 17:40

That's very true Heidianne.....But keep in mind that the delegate count was cut in half since Florida insisted on moving their primary up. The count on it is only 50. Even if Romney pulls it out in Florida, this is a long way from being over as a great many of the upcoming primaries and caucuses are proportional. California will be the ticket to victory with 169 winner-take-all delegates.

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Jane Millar
01/31/2012 17:40

I was Praying that Rick Santorum would be Stronger in Florida! He is the Most Honest and Consistent! I am having Problems with Newt Gingrich! He has been recently making Deals with individuals such Al Sharpton and Nancy Pelosi! How much more Liberal can these 2 people BE? So I don't trust him! But who ever is the Choice I Will Support and Vote for - just to Vote Against Obama! Peace Be Unto You All and God Bless! Jane. http://www.RickSantorum.com/

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Eva
01/31/2012 18:55

Jane...do you have actual proof that Newt made any deals with Nancy Pelosi or Al Sharpton? I mean, we have all seen the photo of him sitting on the sofa with Princess Nancy but were there any deals made, was he just trying to prove a point and he has admitted it was the stupidest thing he has done recently...I am a Herman Cain supporter who was disappointed when he endorsed Newt because I wanted him back in the race but I have done alot of research on Newt and listened to folks like Michael Reagan who was actually there when Newt worked with his father...Nancy Reagan gave Newt some sort of award and thanks for carrying on the conservative torch handed to him by her beloved Ronnie and she would NEVER have done that if she thought it wasn't so...we want to clean house in Washington this time and we are going to need someone with BOLD solutions and a warrior...sure isn't Mittens...Newt would clean house, that is why so many of the repub estab don't want him, they like the status quo...he has endorsed Herman Cain's 9-9-9 tax reform plan and that is a BIG plus for me...just sayin...think about it!

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Deb in Texas
01/31/2012 20:17

You are right, Eva. I've been following Newt and researching all of the allocations against him to find they are false. Newt is already naming who he will bring on board, Perry is another for his strength in States Rights and the 10th Amendment along with Cain for his expertise in economics and job creation. It sounds like Newt already has a plan where all we hear from Mittens is smears. Four years with Mittens isn't going to be any different then what we already have. There is a reason only 18% of congress liked Newt when he was Speaker. Think about it... that makes him MORE then qualified for this job.

Oh! And for the Pelosi thing on the couch? He did his homework and one year later got up in front of congress to literally rip apart Al Gore and his "theory". See links:

Ripping on Gore's misinformation ONE YEAR after the Pelosi thing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7VUg7nG3lw&feature=results_main&playnext=1&list=PL7A75649F97C57346

He does his homework. He admits that was a mistake.

Newt on Cap and Trade: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MoyPcX75RV8&feature=results_main&playnext=1&list=PL118377A31F538057

Adelle
01/31/2012 21:44

Nice guy but not ready for prime time as they say. If Rick and Ron had dropped out and endorsed NEWT this would be a done race. But we may get a liar and a crook that is OWNED by Goldman Sacs and Goerge Soros.... Thanks for "wasting" your vote when a man that spent $17million is buying the election. Hope you will never support Romney.

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Adelle
01/31/2012 21:56

Jane,
Who bought you off? Eva and Deb and I have written that Romney is the liar. How can you call yourself a Christian and not be wise as a serpant? I know Newt and I can tell you he would never makes deals with the devil, but you can draw horns on Mitt the liar.
He says the Reagans hate newt. Then why did Nancy Reagan say "Ronnie passed the torch to newt". I saw and heard her. Michael Reagan was with Newt in Tampa yesterday.. You better go on the sites Deb sent you.
I was with newt about 2 yrs. ago. He could turn this country around in 15 months. I have papers that prove it. Wish they would publish e-mails as I would give you mine. I have lots of proof. But did you ever even go on newt's website, or did you go to the lying Romney one? You can see and hear the truth on newts. Romney has no truth except cutting little bits and pieces and splice them together.
I can guarantee you that Jesus would be with newt. He is not bought and sold like others but stands on principles. And if you checked about that 2nd wife, she chased him down and broke up a family. The 3rd wife did not break up a family and they together have really come to Jesus.( check out the movies he has done to honor Reagan, etc.) The first wife has a good relationship with both..and the daughters are helping their Dad as are the grandchildren. Its amazing how "Chrstians" are so gullible. You don't to a church that teaches you how to live and make wise decisions.

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Adelle
01/31/2012 21:42

Its really sad when someone can literally BUY an election. Newt should have had the victory but when you are slammed with $17million of lies this is what happens.Even ads like the Reagans don't like him when Nancy Reagan just said...and it was on FOX...that "Ronnie passed the torch to Newt" Does that sound like hate? Michael Reagan campaigned with him to, that I had to miss as I have a rental property that I had to take care of and secure it.
This makes me sick as I want to see this brilliant man that has real plans that will work as they have in the past...be president of the United States. My family came over on the 2nd ship..The Blessings. I am related to people like Chief Justice John Marshall, Henry Flagler who started Standard Oil and Pres. Grover Cleveland ( when democrats were still good) on my Mom's side and embarrassed to say on my Dad;s side Pres. Jimmy Carter ( oh well at least now he is not the worst president). I have a huge stake in this country. I will NOT fill in a blank for Romney if he becomes the nominee and I am a lifelong Republican and involved with the party since 1985 officially. GOD bless this country and GOD bless NEWT. I pray that he wins so we can be safe again. But it can't be with SOROS saying Romney and Obama, they are alike and I can control them both.

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