Two polls just released from different polling agencies show that former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is surging in popularity in both of the upcoming Southern states. 

In Mississippi, The American Research Group shows that Gingrich is holding an 4 point advantage over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

Gingrich 35%
Romney 31%
Santorum 20%
Paul 7%

Over in Alabama the field is much tighter, but Rasmussen is showing that Gingrich has taken a 1% lead over Governor Romney and a 2% lead over former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum.

Gingrich 30%
Romney 29%
Santorum 28%
Paul 7%

Could Lazurus rise again?

I support Mitt Romney for the GOP presidential nomination. 

However, the more I see and hear, the more I like and admire Ron Paul.

The debates have put him on center stage. He's demonstrated that he can play on the big stage and often times has out performed  his rivals.
Paul's clearly the most affable, principled and consistent candidate in the race. His self-depreciating manner, humor and cheerful persona are infectious:

He seems serenely comfortable in his own skin. He's brainy, a straight talker and talks straight from the heart. He doesn't pander to special interests or - as he says - “kiss the ring” of the likes of a Donald Trump.

Ron Paul's the 76 year old “Happy Warrior” of the Republican Party.

And his message is compelling:

To government, he says, you’re too big, bloated and intrusive; keep your hands out of my pocket and your nose out of my life.

To the world, he says, the United States can't afford to pay your bills any longer or clean-up the mess you've made in your country; we can't export Jeffersonian-style democracy to other peoples - you folks figure it out yourselves. And I'm particularly supportive of what he says about the war in Afghanistan.

And to the American people, he says, its all about liberty; individual freedom.*

Moreover, no candidate for the presidency has ever been more eloquent in expressing his adherence  to and reverence for the Constitution. He's unsurpassed in making the case for Constitutional government.

Of particular note, is the support - even adulation - Paul gets among young people: they love the guy!

They're turned off by the traditional pap and hypocrisy of today's politics and bought and sold politicians. They're  turned on by Paul's gospel of ”leave me alone” Libertarianism and free market capitalism. That support bodes well for the conservative cause and the country's future.

His critics say - and they're many - that he's not really a Republican. His constituents in Texas' 14th congressional district think otherwise. Since 1979, he's been elected to serve 10 terms in the House. In 2010, he received 80.7 percent of the vote against three Republican opponents.

The critics point to Paul's past writings and associations - 22 years ago - as being anti-Semitic and racist. He's disavowed the pamphlets and vehemently denies that he's an anti-Semite or a racist. For some, though, the issue remains troubling as Newt Gingrich’s past does for others.

.And they say he's too extreme; unconventional, even a bit whacky Paul responds by saying that the same was said about the Founding Fathers.

And, yes, some of Paul's supporters are obnoxious, fringe, anarchists-types. But as Ronald Reagan said, “I don't endorse them. They endorse me.”

Ron Paul won't be the Republican presidential nominee. But he's waged a remarkable campaign: his Libertarian message has resonated with many Americans and it will be force in the years to come. It's also become a strong voice within the Republican Party.

And more and more Americans “have opened minds to the to the libertarians’ argument. The essence of which is the common-sensical principle that before government interferes with the freedom of the individual and of individuals making consensual transactions in markets, it ought to have a defensible reason for doing so. It usually does not,” (George Will, “Declaration of independents,” Washington Post, July 29, 2011).

His message is far more important than the messenger or this one election

It's at the very core of conservative thought: liberty; the freedom and sanctity of the individual.

In the Declaration of Independence, the Founders proclaimed that we are endowed “with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness..”

In 1964, another messenger had the same message. Ron Paul's picked-up where Barry Goldwater left off.

*For more information on Paul's position on the issues, go to the link shown below.

Related Articles

“GOP Field of Dreamers: The Libertarian and T-Paw,” (Red County, August 3, 2011)

Ok...I've been wrong before and I will be again....But here's my predictions for tonights' Florida Primary:

Newt will fare much better than expected.  Santorum will do a little better than expected as well.  Romney may win this, but it will be a much closer race than most people think.  Almost every poll in South Carolina put Romney almost exactly where he ended up and the same was true in New Hampshire.  To me, this denotes that undecideds are going heavily toward Gingrich, or other candidates as was the case in New Hampshire.  In South Carolina, most of the polls showed Gingrich at least 8% lower than his actual vote totals, with the exception of the Public Policy Poll.  The Real Clear Politics average of all the polls showed Gingrich up 5% in South Carolina, when in fact he won by 12.6%.  Santorum was polled at 11.8%...and finished at 17%...Romney polled at 28.5% but finished below it at 27.8%.  Using the PPP as a guide, as it was the largest poll and most diverse if the pattern holds true for Romney he will finish with 39%.  Gingrich is already leading Tea Party members and Evangelicals, according to the notes in the PPP poll.  If that pattern holds true, then the same results will occur that happened in South Carolina.  Gingrich should increase his total from 31% to 38-39% making this too close to call.  I see Santorum going to 17% with Ron Paul getting about 6% of the total.   

A just released poll from Time/CNN shows that the surge of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is carrying on into Florida. 

Mitt Romney: 36 percent
Newt Gingrich: 34 percent
Rick Santorum: 11 percent
Ron Paul: 9 percent

Margin of Error + - 5%

Further, a poll released earlier by Quinnipiac University shows the same numbers for Gingrich and Romney with Santorum getting up to 13% and Ron Paul at 10%.

Look for Gingrich's numbers to continue to climb after tonight's debate if history is any indicator.  If the trend continues and Gingrich wins Florida, Romney will

 Toward the end of “Why Newt Gingrich Won't Be the Republican Presidential Nominee,”

I wrote that Newt Gingrich would lose South Carolina and should consider withdrawing from the race.

 

He won and he won't.

So, as Rick Perry said - the only memorable thing he said - “OOPS!”

With egg on my face and eating crow, I stand corrected by the voters of South Carolina. I was dead wrong.

South Carolina was to be Mitt Romney's knock-out punch.

Instead, Romney got a sound shellacking: he got whooped good as we say around these parts.

It looks like it's gong to be slog along, hunker down time.

The  Romney campaign had that strategy on  hold but now it's the operative plan.

The following is an excerpt of that post South Carolina strategy from Jon Ward of the Huffington Post - which is definitely no friend of  Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney or conservatives generally:

“The Romney campaign will 'blow up the bridge marked 'Early Primary Win' and retrench further back inside its campaign fortress, where it is in fact prepared and ready for a long primary. The campaign has been organizing in many of the early primary and caucus states for months, and has the organizational capacity and the money to fight until the end. (Italics added).

Romney's nightmare scenario is one in which Gingrich wins South Carolina and gathers so much momentum from his victory that he goes on to win Florida on Jan. 31 and becomes something of a frontrunner. Even if that were to happen, though, the month of February will present new challenges for Gingrich. (Italics added).

Four states will hold caucuses in early February, and they will likely be dominated by Romney and Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), both of whom have been organizing in those states. After those, the next contests will not occur until Feb. 28. (Italics Added).Whether or not Gingrich gathers momentum during the month, then, depends more on his campaign's messaging than it does on voters.

During that long stretch of dead time, the Romney campaign is confident that it can essentially persuade Republicans that Gingrich is what they have argued he is this week: an unreliable and unpredictable human being who cannot be trusted with the presidency. They fully expect Gingrich to help them make that case, by making comments or behaving in a way that demonstrates his lack of discipline...”.

For those who're  looking for  a Debater In Chief - not a president - there are two more scheduled this month - one tonight. Then there won't be another debate until February 22 prior to the Arizona and Michigan primaries February 28.

Looking ahead, Newt Gingrich's biggest problem remains Newt Gingrich. And with Ron Paul and Rick Santorium still in the race - especially Paul – the Anybody But Romney vote is split.

We've now had one caucus and two primaries - a mere blip on the screen. The list of upcoming GOP contests is mind boggling from here on. I lost count.

In the end, the organizational strength and financial resources of the Romney campaign and its ability to wage - if necessary - a long, protracted fight for the nomination - are formidable and not easily overcome.

Now it's on to Florida - the first mega-state primary with 10 media markets. For Mitt Romney, it's his firewall state. Florida will show who has the Big Mo - momentum.

 A lot of things have transpired over the last 48 hours to completely change the dynamics of the race for the Republican nomination:

1.  Rick Santorum was declared the winner in the Iowa Caucuses showing that Mitt Romney is in fact beatable.

2.  Rick Perry has bailed out of the Presidential race, endorsing Newt Gingrich, and saying that he will actively campaign for the Speaker.

   3.  The most current polls in South Carolina show that Romney's support is starting to erode, while the same polls are showing that Gingrich's is growing daily.  Four polls, Clemson/Palmetto, Public Policy Polling,  Rasmussen and Insider Advantage,  show Gingrich ahead of Romney and the rest of the field.

4. Newt's ex-wife, along with the help of ABC News, tried to torpedo his candidacy with a last minute interview that was a complete rehash of a story already published and out for several months.

5.  The last debate before todays South Carolina primary was clearly won by everyone in the room, except for Mitt Romney, who at best debated just above Texas Congressman Ron Paul.  Further, Romney has fumbled the ball completely on what is supposed to be his strength: his business career.  Bain Capital has been a tremendous thorn in his side and now comes a report that Romney has put millions of dollars into Cayman Island banks.  I sincerely think there are more people who are concerned about Romney's business problems than they are about Newt's marital problems.

6.  In an interview yesterday with Laura Ingraham, Romney stated flatly that the economy has done better since President Obama has been at the helm.  Listen below at about the 5:45 mark.  Do you think Obama might use that in a campaign ad comes this fall?

With all of that being said, the path to the Republican nomination just became a lot clearer for Newt Gingrich to pull of one of the biggest upsets in political history.

Should Gingrich win South Carolina, he will get a huge boost for the Florida primary scheduled for January 31st.  Should Gingrich be able to capitalize on it and win the Sunshine State, his stock will go up infinitely heading into Super Tuesday.  This is all about delegate count however, with the nominee needing 1144 total to claim the nomination.  There are several smaller contests in between Florida and Super Tuesday in which Romney and Ron Paul will probably score well, however, should Rick Santorum give up his quest after Florida, the Conservative vote will no longer be split which will give Gingrich clear victories in a few of the more Conservative states.  At this point, Mitt Romney's best friend is Rick Santorum...so long as he stays in the race.


Super Tuesday itself will clear up a lot of the murkiness surrounding the nomination with Georgia and Tennessee being two of the biggest prizes on that day.  Both will go to Gingrich with Romney taking Massachusetts, Vermont and possibly Ohio.  Look for Ron Paul to take Virginia as he and Romney will be the only candidates on the ballot there and I smell a huge protest vote coming against Romney.  North Dakota and Oklahoma are up in the air.

Romney, and even Paul for that matter, have much better nationwide organizations than Gingrich.  There's no doubt about that.  It has to be remembered however, that Gingrich has been in the political game for a long time and there are a lot of politicians out there who still owe him political debts, Georgia Governor Nathan Deal being one of them.  Deal was a very early supporter of The Speaker and has stood by him when many others have jumped ship.  Deal's loyalty comes from the fact that when Deal switched parties, Gingrich was Speaker of the House at the time and allowed Deal to keep his Congressional tenure that he built up while being a Democrat.  I promise you that there are similar stories nationwide that will help Gingrich build a nationwide network very quickly after people realize that Romney isn't going to be walking away with the nomination and also realize that Gingrich is indeed electable and that Romney has as many liabilities as he has assets.  

For many, many years the California primary has been an insignificant entity when it comes to the GOP nomination, however since the delegate count of 1144 may not be reached by any candidate by the time of the California Primary on June 5th, this may well be the deciding factor unless one of the top two candidates fold up their tents by then.  (The fact that Michael Reagan, President Reagan's son, just endorsed Gingrich probably won't hurt Newt's chances in California either..)   If Speaker Gingrich is in the top two at that point, I sincerely doubt you will see him fold.  I do however see the possibility of a Gingrich/Romney ticket that will be very similar to Reagan/Bush in 1980.  George H.W. Bush was the absolute last person that Ronald Reagan wanted on his team.  (He actually wanted Paul Laxalt from Nevada.)  I hope that if I'm correct the Republican party will have the same results:  A landslide victory over a very unpopular incumbent President.

In a just released poll from Matt Towery's Insider Advantage, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is now leading in South Carolina.  In a Politico poll it is also being reported that Gingrich is 'in striking distance' of Romney.

This is certainly not a good day for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney who is watching his strong grasp on the nomination slip away one piece at a time.  It is also being reported that former Pennsylvania Rick Santorum will now be called the winner in the Iowa Caucuses as a recount now shows that Santorum won by 34 votes.  This race is far from over as Gingrich continues to get a bump in the polls everytime he debates

I just recieved a personal message from State Senator Kevin Bryant of South Carolina who has confirmed that he will indeed be supporting Congressman Ron Paul for President.

Quite honestly, I wrote to the Senator asking him to reconsider his support for Paul.  He sent me the following gracious email:

"Great to hear from you Bill, I have chosen to support Dr. Paul as I believe his message energizes our base. Interestingly, even though he's the oldest candidate, the young voters seem to be attracted to him. Thanks for your input."

I responded back that I sincerely hopes that he will do what most Paul supporters won't, and that is back the eventual nominee of the GOP should it not be Congressman Paul.  I will let you know if he responds.

UPDATE:  So far the Senator has responded that

"If RP isn't our nominee, then he must embrace some of RP's positions to capture this constituency. We can't beat BO without a conservative."

I totally agree with Senator Bryant, but this leads us back into the discussion of what a Conservative really is.  Apparently the Senator and I have different ideas of the definition.

UPDATE:  When asked directly if Senator Bryant would endorse the eventual GOP nominee should it not be Congressman Paul,  hs

Democrats (and the mainstream media) have taken some glee from the
ongoing contentious contest for the 2012 Republican Presidential
nomination.  Indeed, they sound like Republicans last time celebrating
the extended 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination battle between then
Senator Hillary Clinton (the presumptive nominee who wasn't) and Senator
Barack Obama (the eventual nominee and now President). Democratic
insiders and institutional party operatives remained convinced that
Senator Clinton would win all the way until the day she didn't.

This 'vetting' process is part of winning the nomination, and it should
be.  If candidates can't take the heat, the best time to find out is
before they are the chef in the kitchen.  Every weakness has to be
exposed and every test thrown at them.

No one doubts that this year's General Election will be every bit as
tough, and undoubtedly, tougher than anything in the primaries.  And, it
does not end there.  Presidents get hammered every day from the moment
they take office until the day they leave office (and with some - like
President George W. Bush - even long after they have left office).

With all of that said, it can be tough for the faint of heart to watch
as the candidates get bruised and battered along the way.  Yet, it is a
long time until Labor Day, and an even longer time until November 4,
2012.

Oddly, the current scorecard in the GOP race could not be more
confusing.  On the one hand, Governor Mitt Romney has scored one
unexpected victory in Iowa and a foregone victory in New Hampshire (the
adjacent neighbor to his home in Massachusetts where he was governor).
The last time this was done was 1976 by President Gerald Ford.  He lost
in the general election.

Meanwhile, conservatives continue to battle amongst themselves for the
Romney alternative with three candidates dividing up 60%+ in the GOP
field.  Most agree that at some point, Governor Romney has to either
find a way to break in among conservatives, or conservatives will
eventually coalesce around someone else as the eventual nominee.

Congressman Ron Paul and former Utah Governor John Huntsman complicate
the math for building momentum in very different ways.  Congressman
Paul's devoted following has enabled him to remain a factor in the GOP
field.  Here is how.

Assume there are 15 devoted Ron Paul followers.  They will vote no
matter what.  If the total votes cast are 100, then they are only 15% of
the total.  But, if the total votes cast are only 30 people, then he
gets 50% (15 of 30).

So, the smaller the state and the turnout, the greater Congressman
Paul's impact is.  Presumably, as the nomination process moves to larger
states like Florida or Georgia, his impact could become less of a
factor.

Then there is Governor Huntsman.  Like Senator Rick Santorum in Iowa,
Governor Huntsman put all of his eggs in one state - New Hampshire.  And
like Senator Santorum, his impressive showing got him a ticket to ride a
little longer.  While most believe it was a ticket to South Carolina, it
is more likely a ticket to Florida.  South Carolina won't be the
friendliest of territories for him, but if he is prepared to spend real
money, he could have a real impact in Florida.

Governor Huntsman does create some interesting dynamics for the GOP
race.  Every vote he gets is more likely than not a vote taken from
Governor Romney.  It is dilution from the middle as 3 conservatives
dilute the right.

In the end, South Carolina could be the last stand for one (or maybe
two) candidates.  Florida is just too expensive for tagalongs to
compete.  Should Governor Huntsman play on in Florida while a
conservative or two fall away in South Carolina, then the dynamics get
even more interesting.

Just like 2008, there will be lots of last minute twists and turns as
GOP voters realign constantly, with the ever changing political
landscape of a topsy-turvy contest.  Look next for a dizzying pace of
endorsements in the days ahead.  At some point, former candidates will
start to jump in while they are still relevant and can have an impact.

It was crazy last time and it will be crazy this time.

Unless one candidate can break through with a 45%+ win (very unlikely)
in South Carolina, then the show will likely go on even as the field
dwindles down from too many to the final two or three.  Until then, the
majority of GOP voters seem resigned to wait.

So, sing it again Sam - Florida may not be the end of show.  Everything
could come back once again to Super Tuesday and Georgia.  Somehow it
would be fitting if Georgia could be among the states to actually pick
the Republican nominee who will face President Obama in November.

A new poll just released from the American Research Group shows former House Speaker Newt Gingrich surging back into a statistical tie with frontrunner Mitt Romney in the very important South Carolina primary to be held on January 21st.  It also shows Texas Congressman Ron Paul picking up ground and by himself in 3rd place. 

Mitt Romney-29%
Newt Gingrich-25%
Ron Paul- 20%
Rick Perry-9%
Rick Santorum-7%
Undecided-7%
Jon Huntsman-1%

+ or - 4% Margin of Error

This poll clearly shows that the party as a whole, at least in South Carolina, is not content with Mitt Romney as the nominee.