Two polls just released from different polling agencies show that former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is surging in popularity in both of the upcoming Southern states. 

In Mississippi, The American Research Group shows that Gingrich is holding an 4 point advantage over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

Gingrich 35%
Romney 31%
Santorum 20%
Paul 7%

Over in Alabama the field is much tighter, but Rasmussen is showing that Gingrich has taken a 1% lead over Governor Romney and a 2% lead over former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum.

Gingrich 30%
Romney 29%
Santorum 28%
Paul 7%

Could Lazurus rise again?

What a difference four years makes.

 

In 2008, the Republican primaries and caucuses were stacked earlier than ever. The traditionally early states kicked it off, but most of the delegates were chosen on February 5, dubbed Super Duper Tuesday. 24 states voted that day.

By March 4, 2008, - Super Tuesday - John McCain had earned enough pledged delegates to become the Republican presumptive nominee.

By contrast, the Democratic Party's nominating process was lengthy, extending into June, 2008.

Four years later, with Super Tuesday 2012 looming, the GOP nominee isn't close to being chosen

After the '08 election, the Republican Party decided that its nominee was chosen too early. The party thought a longer caucus and primary season in 2012 would enhance the name ID of the party’s candidates and keep the GOP message front and center in the news.

The party chose a longer process similar to that of the Democratic Party in 2008: it went from front- loading in 2008 to back-loading in 2012.

A byzantine system of rules was developed to determine how delegates would be allocated: winner take all, proportional allocation and a combination of both. This year, it's not about winning states but delegates.

The problem is that 2012 isn't 2008 when the presidency was an open seat. This year, an incumbent president is seeking re-election free of any challengers.

The Republican Party is left hanging out to dry in hotly contested primaries, warts and all.

After Super Tuesday - when ten states hold primary and caucus elections - 33 states still remain to be heard from between then and the last primary June 6 (Utah). A nominee could amass enough delegates before June 6 and I think most of us hope he will.

The GOP's 2012 road map will be a tricky, twisted one, not unlike previous paths to the nomination.

In retrospective, the road to the 2012 nomination should have been  a short one - like 2008 - so that the GOP could coalesce around its nominee long before the convention.

In addition to the slog along, lengthy process, some conservatives are also all bent out of shape about the remaining choices we have: Who's the “true” conservative? Who can beat President Obama?

Relax.

The angst  filled, hand wringing will play out as the nominating process proceeds, even one which seems to have no end.

Just for the sake of it, I've thought about the last three Republican presidents and the crop of 2012 candidates - including those who've dropped out of the race: is there a single, one word, sound bite which describes a positive attribute of the perfect candidate? Here's what I came up with:

Ronald Reagan's optimism; George Herbert Walker Bush's class; George W. Bush's decency; Michele Bachmann's audacity; Herman Cain's humor; Newt Gingrich's hubris; Jon Huntsman’s intelligence; Tim Pawlenty's genuineness ; Ron Paul's principles; Rick Perry's swagger (that's all I could think ofabout Mr. OOPS), Mitt Romney's straight arrowness and Rick Santorum's tenacity.

Ideally, then, the perfect candidate would have each of these attributes, yes, even swagger.

The prefect candidate should also have the attributes to be president: good character, steady temperament, sound judgment, discipline, stability and veracity.

However, there's never a perfect candidate. The closest one was 1980 but in today's litmus-test Republican Party, he probably couldn't be nominated anyway.

So, we're down to four candidates, affectionately (mostly) known here as The Toad, The Old Geezer, The Square and The Pope: none are perfect, all are flawed - some more than others. It's all about choosing and that's what the primary process is all about although we're taking too much time to do it.

Related Articles

"Pope Santorum I," (We Are Politics, February 22)

"Ron Paul: The 'Happy Warrior', (We Are Politics, February 8)

"Confession of a Gingrichphobe," (We Are Politics, February 1)

"The Square," (We Are Politics, December 27, 2011)

First things first.

Mr. Santorum- mea culpa.

Just last week, I wrote an article asking you to please step aside, drop out of the Republican race, and let Newt and Mitt fight it out for the nomination. I cited your lackluster performances in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Nevada as reasons for you to step aside. You attempted to position yourself as the “Non-Romney” candidate, and lost that moniker to Newt Gingrich. All hope seemed lost, until the trifecta of caucuses/primaries/beauty contests on Tuesday, February 7, 2012. Only time will tell how we view your overwhelming wins in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri in one night (will you raise more money? Will people begin to think you can actually win? Will your national numbers go up? Will Newt supporters see you as a better anti-Romney and cede to you?). For now, sir, you made me eat crow. And for that, I salute you.

And now that my apology is done, back down to the real analysis of the “Santorum February Surprise”. Honestly, did anyone (other than Rick and his wife) see those three victories going squarely in Santorum’s win column? (If you are nodding your head yes, I must remind you that lying is a sin, punishable by death). What do these wins mean? Columns can be written on any number of issues that the three races show about Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and even Ron Paul. I’ll pass on that analysis, and fast forward all the way to August when the Republican Party comes together for their National Convention. When that convention is over, we will all know who the Republican ticket for President and Vice President will be. But before then, I have serious doubts we’ll have any clue. Let’s evaluate:

It takes 1,144 delegates to receive the Republican nomination for President. Thus far, we have 87 delegates pledged to Romney, 35 pledged to Santorum, 32 pledged to Gingrich, and 13 pledged to Paul. In February (and March 3rd), we have 126 delegates left up for grabs before the (not so) Super Tuesday prize of 437. When you look at the Super Tuesday states, it appeared Gingrich was poised to have a big southern day; at least until Santorum’s victories last night. The Super Tuesday states include Gingrich’s former state of Georgia, Tennessee, and Oklahoma three states he should do quite well in. On the flip side, Romney has Massachussetts, Vermont, and Idaho that day as well; states not nearly as rich with delegates, but likely wins for Romney nonetheless. Let us not forget Virginia- a state where Gingrich failed to get his name on the ballot, and looked to be a motherlode state for Romney delegates. But as Lee Corso says, “Not so fast, my friends.” Along comes Santorum to siphon more votes.

So, Super Tuesday may muddy up the waters even more. And what after that? There are a smattering of states that range from the South (Alabama with 50 delegates), to the Midwest (Illinois and Wisconsin, with 69 and 42 delegates, respectively), the Northeast (New York State with 95 delegates), the Rust Belt (Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania with 72 delegates), and the delegate rich states of anomalic sizes (Texas with 155 delegates and California with 172 of them).

You see how the map favors all three/four of the candidates in some way? Randy Evans has written time and time again on this site about the race heading past Super Tuesday, and I am beginning to agree with him. In fact, I now think that the brokered convention the media talks about is inevitable. I see it playing out like this: Ron Paul will have about 325 delegates by August, and Santorum, Romney and Gingrich will have 750, 725, and 450. In all honesty, I don’t know who will have what number, but I am certain that Romney will be one of the two 700 clubbers. Which puts Gingrich and Santorum in a unique bartering position. It actually puts all three in a unique position, with a lot of who/what, etc.

Bottom line: I see either two of these three top Republican Candidates running on the same ticket together, or a brokered convention where someone like Governor John Kasich of Ohio or Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana could shine.

Who knows?

But again, Mr. Santorum…my apologies, sir. Go do your thing. 

Ok...I've been wrong before and I will be again....But here's my predictions for tonights' Florida Primary:

Newt will fare much better than expected.  Santorum will do a little better than expected as well.  Romney may win this, but it will be a much closer race than most people think.  Almost every poll in South Carolina put Romney almost exactly where he ended up and the same was true in New Hampshire.  To me, this denotes that undecideds are going heavily toward Gingrich, or other candidates as was the case in New Hampshire.  In South Carolina, most of the polls showed Gingrich at least 8% lower than his actual vote totals, with the exception of the Public Policy Poll.  The Real Clear Politics average of all the polls showed Gingrich up 5% in South Carolina, when in fact he won by 12.6%.  Santorum was polled at 11.8%...and finished at 17%...Romney polled at 28.5% but finished below it at 27.8%.  Using the PPP as a guide, as it was the largest poll and most diverse if the pattern holds true for Romney he will finish with 39%.  Gingrich is already leading Tea Party members and Evangelicals, according to the notes in the PPP poll.  If that pattern holds true, then the same results will occur that happened in South Carolina.  Gingrich should increase his total from 31% to 38-39% making this too close to call.  I see Santorum going to 17% with Ron Paul getting about 6% of the total.   

A just released poll from Time/CNN shows that the surge of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is carrying on into Florida. 

Mitt Romney: 36 percent
Newt Gingrich: 34 percent
Rick Santorum: 11 percent
Ron Paul: 9 percent

Margin of Error + - 5%

Further, a poll released earlier by Quinnipiac University shows the same numbers for Gingrich and Romney with Santorum getting up to 13% and Ron Paul at 10%.

Look for Gingrich's numbers to continue to climb after tonight's debate if history is any indicator.  If the trend continues and Gingrich wins Florida, Romney will

In a just released poll from Matt Towery's Insider Advantage, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is now leading in South Carolina.  In a Politico poll it is also being reported that Gingrich is 'in striking distance' of Romney.

This is certainly not a good day for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney who is watching his strong grasp on the nomination slip away one piece at a time.  It is also being reported that former Pennsylvania Rick Santorum will now be called the winner in the Iowa Caucuses as a recount now shows that Santorum won by 34 votes.  This race is far from over as Gingrich continues to get a bump in the polls everytime he debates

The Making of the Evangelical Endorsement    

You may have seen on Fox News the story about Evangelical Leaders meeting in Houston this past weekend. As the Founder of TeenPact, I have been a part of this group for some years. The big question before the Houston meeting of evangelical leaders on this historic weekend was whether or not we could reach consensus on a GOP presidential candidate. By lunchtime on Saturday the group was solidly behind former Sen. Rick Santorum.    

The sense of urgency that led to the meeting grew out of what occurred (or didn’t occur) in 2008. Sen. John McCain secured the Republican nomination because evangelicals couldn’t settle on a candidate. And we know how that turned out.    

We should know by now that a candidate who is hesitant to talk about key social issues on the campaign trail is not likely to wake up thinking about them in the White House. McCain, of course, never got close to the White House. But even George W. Bush, though stalwart in the battle for life, failed to deliver on the Federal Marriage Amendment. Between Vice President Dick Cheney’s pressure on the party and political adviser Karl Rove’s denial of the importance of this issue, the push to protect marriage by defining it in constitutional law as the union of one man and one woman went down the drain as Republicans squandered their majority.    

Fast forward to 2012 and the Obama Presidency. The current president has emboldened the abortion movement by pushing for federal funding of abortions. He has grown annual deficits and the national debt to levels far beyond any previous president. Add to that my concern as a state utility regulator about President Obama stopping the Yucca Mountain nuclear-waste facility construction, and you can see how important this upcoming election has become.    

The 150 or so evangelical leaders who packed into the Hidden Hills Ranch in North Houston were anxious for unity. The group began in prayer, going to their knees on the hard wooden floor of the gigantic great room of Judge Paul Pressler’s country home. That reverential tone continued throughout the weekend. By 11 o’clock Saturday morning, after three ballots, a super majority emerged for Rick Santorum. Shortly thereafter, the Family Research Council’s Tony Perkins, who acted as spokesman for the group, did a national media conference call to announce the news.    

Before the meeting, I really didn’t have a clear choice among the GOP field, but after listening to lively and informed discussion from leaders such as Dr. James Dobson, I was ready to make my choice as well. I realize that to many voters endorsements don’t mean much, but taking a stand for a principled candidate like Rick Santorum may just be the last-minute boost he needs to advance in the race. No one was saying Newt or Rick Perry weren't good candidates, but we felt like we needed to get behind one or we would have another McCain situation.     No doubt, many in the room believed it was time to reward Santorum for the strong and principled stands he has taken. He fought valiantly to stop partial-birth abortion—leading the fight while he was in the U.S. Senate. He not only has been faithful to his wife, Sen. Santorum has demonstrated great commitment on the issue of protecting marriage. He refused to attack Mitt Romney on Bain Capital issues when others were piling on.    

No, Rick Santorum is not the “perfect candidate,” but he has the “package” that we were looking for. Hopefully our endorsement doesn’t come too late.     British Prime Minister William Pitt reminded his friend and abolitionist Member of Parliament William Wilberforce why Christians need to be involved in public life: Pitt said, “Surely the principles as well as practice of Christianity are simple, and lead not to meditation only but to action.”     Wilberforce took those words to heart. For 26 years, he labored to end the British slave trade, earning the affectionate title, “Hercules of Abolition.” Who knows? Perhaps someday Rick Santorum, who for decades has stood firm for both unborn children and women in crisis pregnancies, will become known as the “Hercules of Abortion.”     If so, the prayers many of us offered on our knees last Saturday in North Houston will have surely been answered.     I am building a list of supporters for Rick, so let me know if you agree with me.

Democrats (and the mainstream media) have taken some glee from the
ongoing contentious contest for the 2012 Republican Presidential
nomination.  Indeed, they sound like Republicans last time celebrating
the extended 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination battle between then
Senator Hillary Clinton (the presumptive nominee who wasn't) and Senator
Barack Obama (the eventual nominee and now President). Democratic
insiders and institutional party operatives remained convinced that
Senator Clinton would win all the way until the day she didn't.

This 'vetting' process is part of winning the nomination, and it should
be.  If candidates can't take the heat, the best time to find out is
before they are the chef in the kitchen.  Every weakness has to be
exposed and every test thrown at them.

No one doubts that this year's General Election will be every bit as
tough, and undoubtedly, tougher than anything in the primaries.  And, it
does not end there.  Presidents get hammered every day from the moment
they take office until the day they leave office (and with some - like
President George W. Bush - even long after they have left office).

With all of that said, it can be tough for the faint of heart to watch
as the candidates get bruised and battered along the way.  Yet, it is a
long time until Labor Day, and an even longer time until November 4,
2012.

Oddly, the current scorecard in the GOP race could not be more
confusing.  On the one hand, Governor Mitt Romney has scored one
unexpected victory in Iowa and a foregone victory in New Hampshire (the
adjacent neighbor to his home in Massachusetts where he was governor).
The last time this was done was 1976 by President Gerald Ford.  He lost
in the general election.

Meanwhile, conservatives continue to battle amongst themselves for the
Romney alternative with three candidates dividing up 60%+ in the GOP
field.  Most agree that at some point, Governor Romney has to either
find a way to break in among conservatives, or conservatives will
eventually coalesce around someone else as the eventual nominee.

Congressman Ron Paul and former Utah Governor John Huntsman complicate
the math for building momentum in very different ways.  Congressman
Paul's devoted following has enabled him to remain a factor in the GOP
field.  Here is how.

Assume there are 15 devoted Ron Paul followers.  They will vote no
matter what.  If the total votes cast are 100, then they are only 15% of
the total.  But, if the total votes cast are only 30 people, then he
gets 50% (15 of 30).

So, the smaller the state and the turnout, the greater Congressman
Paul's impact is.  Presumably, as the nomination process moves to larger
states like Florida or Georgia, his impact could become less of a
factor.

Then there is Governor Huntsman.  Like Senator Rick Santorum in Iowa,
Governor Huntsman put all of his eggs in one state - New Hampshire.  And
like Senator Santorum, his impressive showing got him a ticket to ride a
little longer.  While most believe it was a ticket to South Carolina, it
is more likely a ticket to Florida.  South Carolina won't be the
friendliest of territories for him, but if he is prepared to spend real
money, he could have a real impact in Florida.

Governor Huntsman does create some interesting dynamics for the GOP
race.  Every vote he gets is more likely than not a vote taken from
Governor Romney.  It is dilution from the middle as 3 conservatives
dilute the right.

In the end, South Carolina could be the last stand for one (or maybe
two) candidates.  Florida is just too expensive for tagalongs to
compete.  Should Governor Huntsman play on in Florida while a
conservative or two fall away in South Carolina, then the dynamics get
even more interesting.

Just like 2008, there will be lots of last minute twists and turns as
GOP voters realign constantly, with the ever changing political
landscape of a topsy-turvy contest.  Look next for a dizzying pace of
endorsements in the days ahead.  At some point, former candidates will
start to jump in while they are still relevant and can have an impact.

It was crazy last time and it will be crazy this time.

Unless one candidate can break through with a 45%+ win (very unlikely)
in South Carolina, then the show will likely go on even as the field
dwindles down from too many to the final two or three.  Until then, the
majority of GOP voters seem resigned to wait.

So, sing it again Sam - Florida may not be the end of show.  Everything
could come back once again to Super Tuesday and Georgia.  Somehow it
would be fitting if Georgia could be among the states to actually pick
the Republican nominee who will face President Obama in November.

A new poll just released from the American Research Group shows former House Speaker Newt Gingrich surging back into a statistical tie with frontrunner Mitt Romney in the very important South Carolina primary to be held on January 21st.  It also shows Texas Congressman Ron Paul picking up ground and by himself in 3rd place. 

Mitt Romney-29%
Newt Gingrich-25%
Ron Paul- 20%
Rick Perry-9%
Rick Santorum-7%
Undecided-7%
Jon Huntsman-1%

+ or - 4% Margin of Error

This poll clearly shows that the party as a whole, at least in South Carolina, is not content with Mitt Romney as the nominee. 

The gloves have come off by the other candidates now in response to all of the mudslinging being done at the hands of the Romney and Paul campaigns so the New Hampshire Primary is proving to be a little more contested than originally thought and is proving that it may not be the coronation that Mitt Romney expects.  I came fairly close with my predictions for Iowa, correctly nailing that Bachmann would end her race by the end of the week and calling Mitt Romney the winner, albeit by 8 votes.  I thought Santorum would run fourth, but did expect that a lot of last minute decision makers would choose him and Newt Gingrich.  I was half right.  I didn't fully gauge how $17 million dollars worth of negative campaign ads would affect the Speaker's campaign.  

1.  Romney will win.  There is no question.  And rightly so.  He was Governor of a neighbor state and got a lot of free news airtime as Governor across borders.  Further he owns a home here now.  However, I don't think there is going to be this gigantic groundswell of Romney supporters rushing to get him the nomination.  Look for him to top out at about 28%

2.  Jon Huntsman will become the flavor of the hour here as he comes close to hitting 20%.  Again, as with Santorum, he will benefit from a large number of last minute voters.  Add that to the fact that he skipped Iowa in favor of the Granite State and is more moderate in his views, something endearing to the voters.  This will be the one bright spot of Huntsman's campaign...Look for him to say zài jiàn after Florida...(Goodbye in Chinese.)

3.  Congressman Paul will come in 3rd, but very well may nip Huntsman, depending on how well the weather is and if the flock of students from around the state can get their VW buses started in the cold.  This will also be the beginning of the end for the good Doctor as he will begin to fade significantly in the more traditionally Conservative states.  He's now attacking Santorum as a spendthrift and a betrayer of the Republican Party....Pot...meet kettle...

4.  Rick Santorum will get a boost from his near miraculous win in Iowa, but will duke it out with Speaker Gingrich for the 4th position.  Look for them both to get around 13-15%.  Gingrich very well could come out of this looking pretty good, as will Santorum, so long as neither finishes behing Perry all is well in their camps as the Conservative candidates will do much better in South Carolina and are not expecting a huge win in New Hampshire. 

5.  Rick Perry's campaign is basically on life support after he nearly pulled the plug on it last week after a less than stellar showing in Iowa.  He's basically skipped New Hampshire.  Perry should have been recognized as a local citizen however, with his uncanny resemblance to the Old Man Of The Mountain, but will only be able to get about 2%.  South Carolina will be his Waterloo. 

When all things are said and done there will be no great surprises in New Hampshire unless Romney is prevented from reaching 25%.  If that's the case, his candidacy should go ahead and take the honorable way out and commit Harry Caray...(Yeah I know it's hari-kari, but I think more people commited suicide after hearing poor old Harry slog through "Take Me Out To The Ballgame", than all of the disgraced samurai in history combined.)