John McCain lost in '08 because he lost the center. George W. Bush won re-election in '04 because he won the center. And so it goes.

In the Wall Street Journal, writing about electability, Michael Medved said, "Most political battles are won by seizing the center. Anyone who believes otherwise, ignores the electoral experience of the last 50 years..."

Mr. Medved makes the point that general elections are won "by seizing and holding the ideological center.” In the last  two presidential elections, “more than 44% of voters described themselves as 'moderate,' and no conservative candidate could possibly prevail without coming close to winning half of them (as George W. Bush did in his re-election).” And their number is increasing.

According to a Gallup Poll, 40% - a record number - of Americans call themselves Independents a/k/a moderates. The remainder are almost evenly split between Democrats, 31% and Republicans, 27%.

[By the way, Republicans routed Democrats in 2010 and won back the House by appealing to the center as the base stood firm. They received 58% of the vote from Independents. And we now have Republican governors in Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin and a Republican senator from Massachusetts for the same reason.]

These voters are not ideological purists; not strident, hard-core, litmus test true-believers in the rigid catechisms of Left or Right. They hold the key to winning in November.

The American Spectator's William Tucker observes that they are, "...newly successful people [who] have become the pivotal bloc that swings the state between Republicans and Democrats. They are not committed to either party. They are not terribly involved with social issues. Their main worry is the economy. If Republicans make birth control and separation of church and state the major issue, they will go Democratic. If the Democrats mess up the economy and produce $4.50 gas and 8.3 percent unemployment, they will swing Republican. That will probably decide the 2012 election.”

In a humorous piece on Mitt Romney, I went on record last December as a supporter. That support is based on Romney's private and public sector experience and my belief that he can win enough support from the center. His rivals cannot.

Messrs. Medved and Tucker conclude - and echo my assertion - that Romney is the most electable.

Romney's biggest asset will be Barack Obama's name on the ballot. That will guarantee a huge turn out of the conservative base. Count on it.

Last week, Romney was endorsed by the county's largest Tea Party organization - Freedom Watch - as well as by Jeb Bush and Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC). That's the kind of broad-based support he's getting from conservatives.

Mitt Romney as the 2012 GOP standard bearer will be more than just an appealing candidate. Every poll  indicates he has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama as well as keeping the House in GOP hands. That's the end game.

Two polls just released from different polling agencies show that former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is surging in popularity in both of the upcoming Southern states. 

In Mississippi, The American Research Group shows that Gingrich is holding an 4 point advantage over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

Gingrich 35%
Romney 31%
Santorum 20%
Paul 7%

Over in Alabama the field is much tighter, but Rasmussen is showing that Gingrich has taken a 1% lead over Governor Romney and a 2% lead over former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum.

Gingrich 30%
Romney 29%
Santorum 28%
Paul 7%

Could Lazurus rise again?

What a difference four years makes.

 

In 2008, the Republican primaries and caucuses were stacked earlier than ever. The traditionally early states kicked it off, but most of the delegates were chosen on February 5, dubbed Super Duper Tuesday. 24 states voted that day.

By March 4, 2008, - Super Tuesday - John McCain had earned enough pledged delegates to become the Republican presumptive nominee.

By contrast, the Democratic Party's nominating process was lengthy, extending into June, 2008.

Four years later, with Super Tuesday 2012 looming, the GOP nominee isn't close to being chosen

After the '08 election, the Republican Party decided that its nominee was chosen too early. The party thought a longer caucus and primary season in 2012 would enhance the name ID of the party’s candidates and keep the GOP message front and center in the news.

The party chose a longer process similar to that of the Democratic Party in 2008: it went from front- loading in 2008 to back-loading in 2012.

A byzantine system of rules was developed to determine how delegates would be allocated: winner take all, proportional allocation and a combination of both. This year, it's not about winning states but delegates.

The problem is that 2012 isn't 2008 when the presidency was an open seat. This year, an incumbent president is seeking re-election free of any challengers.

The Republican Party is left hanging out to dry in hotly contested primaries, warts and all.

After Super Tuesday - when ten states hold primary and caucus elections - 33 states still remain to be heard from between then and the last primary June 6 (Utah). A nominee could amass enough delegates before June 6 and I think most of us hope he will.

The GOP's 2012 road map will be a tricky, twisted one, not unlike previous paths to the nomination.

In retrospective, the road to the 2012 nomination should have been  a short one - like 2008 - so that the GOP could coalesce around its nominee long before the convention.

In addition to the slog along, lengthy process, some conservatives are also all bent out of shape about the remaining choices we have: Who's the “true” conservative? Who can beat President Obama?

Relax.

The angst  filled, hand wringing will play out as the nominating process proceeds, even one which seems to have no end.

Just for the sake of it, I've thought about the last three Republican presidents and the crop of 2012 candidates - including those who've dropped out of the race: is there a single, one word, sound bite which describes a positive attribute of the perfect candidate? Here's what I came up with:

Ronald Reagan's optimism; George Herbert Walker Bush's class; George W. Bush's decency; Michele Bachmann's audacity; Herman Cain's humor; Newt Gingrich's hubris; Jon Huntsman’s intelligence; Tim Pawlenty's genuineness ; Ron Paul's principles; Rick Perry's swagger (that's all I could think ofabout Mr. OOPS), Mitt Romney's straight arrowness and Rick Santorum's tenacity.

Ideally, then, the perfect candidate would have each of these attributes, yes, even swagger.

The prefect candidate should also have the attributes to be president: good character, steady temperament, sound judgment, discipline, stability and veracity.

However, there's never a perfect candidate. The closest one was 1980 but in today's litmus-test Republican Party, he probably couldn't be nominated anyway.

So, we're down to four candidates, affectionately (mostly) known here as The Toad, The Old Geezer, The Square and The Pope: none are perfect, all are flawed - some more than others. It's all about choosing and that's what the primary process is all about although we're taking too much time to do it.

Related Articles

"Pope Santorum I," (We Are Politics, February 22)

"Ron Paul: The 'Happy Warrior', (We Are Politics, February 8)

"Confession of a Gingrichphobe," (We Are Politics, February 1)

"The Square," (We Are Politics, December 27, 2011)

First things first.

Mr. Santorum- mea culpa.

Just last week, I wrote an article asking you to please step aside, drop out of the Republican race, and let Newt and Mitt fight it out for the nomination. I cited your lackluster performances in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Nevada as reasons for you to step aside. You attempted to position yourself as the “Non-Romney” candidate, and lost that moniker to Newt Gingrich. All hope seemed lost, until the trifecta of caucuses/primaries/beauty contests on Tuesday, February 7, 2012. Only time will tell how we view your overwhelming wins in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri in one night (will you raise more money? Will people begin to think you can actually win? Will your national numbers go up? Will Newt supporters see you as a better anti-Romney and cede to you?). For now, sir, you made me eat crow. And for that, I salute you.

And now that my apology is done, back down to the real analysis of the “Santorum February Surprise”. Honestly, did anyone (other than Rick and his wife) see those three victories going squarely in Santorum’s win column? (If you are nodding your head yes, I must remind you that lying is a sin, punishable by death). What do these wins mean? Columns can be written on any number of issues that the three races show about Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and even Ron Paul. I’ll pass on that analysis, and fast forward all the way to August when the Republican Party comes together for their National Convention. When that convention is over, we will all know who the Republican ticket for President and Vice President will be. But before then, I have serious doubts we’ll have any clue. Let’s evaluate:

It takes 1,144 delegates to receive the Republican nomination for President. Thus far, we have 87 delegates pledged to Romney, 35 pledged to Santorum, 32 pledged to Gingrich, and 13 pledged to Paul. In February (and March 3rd), we have 126 delegates left up for grabs before the (not so) Super Tuesday prize of 437. When you look at the Super Tuesday states, it appeared Gingrich was poised to have a big southern day; at least until Santorum’s victories last night. The Super Tuesday states include Gingrich’s former state of Georgia, Tennessee, and Oklahoma three states he should do quite well in. On the flip side, Romney has Massachussetts, Vermont, and Idaho that day as well; states not nearly as rich with delegates, but likely wins for Romney nonetheless. Let us not forget Virginia- a state where Gingrich failed to get his name on the ballot, and looked to be a motherlode state for Romney delegates. But as Lee Corso says, “Not so fast, my friends.” Along comes Santorum to siphon more votes.

So, Super Tuesday may muddy up the waters even more. And what after that? There are a smattering of states that range from the South (Alabama with 50 delegates), to the Midwest (Illinois and Wisconsin, with 69 and 42 delegates, respectively), the Northeast (New York State with 95 delegates), the Rust Belt (Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania with 72 delegates), and the delegate rich states of anomalic sizes (Texas with 155 delegates and California with 172 of them).

You see how the map favors all three/four of the candidates in some way? Randy Evans has written time and time again on this site about the race heading past Super Tuesday, and I am beginning to agree with him. In fact, I now think that the brokered convention the media talks about is inevitable. I see it playing out like this: Ron Paul will have about 325 delegates by August, and Santorum, Romney and Gingrich will have 750, 725, and 450. In all honesty, I don’t know who will have what number, but I am certain that Romney will be one of the two 700 clubbers. Which puts Gingrich and Santorum in a unique bartering position. It actually puts all three in a unique position, with a lot of who/what, etc.

Bottom line: I see either two of these three top Republican Candidates running on the same ticket together, or a brokered convention where someone like Governor John Kasich of Ohio or Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana could shine.

Who knows?

But again, Mr. Santorum…my apologies, sir. Go do your thing. 

I support Mitt Romney for the GOP presidential nomination. 

However, the more I see and hear, the more I like and admire Ron Paul.

The debates have put him on center stage. He's demonstrated that he can play on the big stage and often times has out performed  his rivals.
Paul's clearly the most affable, principled and consistent candidate in the race. His self-depreciating manner, humor and cheerful persona are infectious:

He seems serenely comfortable in his own skin. He's brainy, a straight talker and talks straight from the heart. He doesn't pander to special interests or - as he says - “kiss the ring” of the likes of a Donald Trump.

Ron Paul's the 76 year old “Happy Warrior” of the Republican Party.

And his message is compelling:

To government, he says, you’re too big, bloated and intrusive; keep your hands out of my pocket and your nose out of my life.

To the world, he says, the United States can't afford to pay your bills any longer or clean-up the mess you've made in your country; we can't export Jeffersonian-style democracy to other peoples - you folks figure it out yourselves. And I'm particularly supportive of what he says about the war in Afghanistan.

And to the American people, he says, its all about liberty; individual freedom.*

Moreover, no candidate for the presidency has ever been more eloquent in expressing his adherence  to and reverence for the Constitution. He's unsurpassed in making the case for Constitutional government.

Of particular note, is the support - even adulation - Paul gets among young people: they love the guy!

They're turned off by the traditional pap and hypocrisy of today's politics and bought and sold politicians. They're  turned on by Paul's gospel of ”leave me alone” Libertarianism and free market capitalism. That support bodes well for the conservative cause and the country's future.

His critics say - and they're many - that he's not really a Republican. His constituents in Texas' 14th congressional district think otherwise. Since 1979, he's been elected to serve 10 terms in the House. In 2010, he received 80.7 percent of the vote against three Republican opponents.

The critics point to Paul's past writings and associations - 22 years ago - as being anti-Semitic and racist. He's disavowed the pamphlets and vehemently denies that he's an anti-Semite or a racist. For some, though, the issue remains troubling as Newt Gingrich’s past does for others.

.And they say he's too extreme; unconventional, even a bit whacky Paul responds by saying that the same was said about the Founding Fathers.

And, yes, some of Paul's supporters are obnoxious, fringe, anarchists-types. But as Ronald Reagan said, “I don't endorse them. They endorse me.”

Ron Paul won't be the Republican presidential nominee. But he's waged a remarkable campaign: his Libertarian message has resonated with many Americans and it will be force in the years to come. It's also become a strong voice within the Republican Party.

And more and more Americans “have opened minds to the to the libertarians’ argument. The essence of which is the common-sensical principle that before government interferes with the freedom of the individual and of individuals making consensual transactions in markets, it ought to have a defensible reason for doing so. It usually does not,” (George Will, “Declaration of independents,” Washington Post, July 29, 2011).

His message is far more important than the messenger or this one election

It's at the very core of conservative thought: liberty; the freedom and sanctity of the individual.

In the Declaration of Independence, the Founders proclaimed that we are endowed “with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness..”

In 1964, another messenger had the same message. Ron Paul's picked-up where Barry Goldwater left off.

*For more information on Paul's position on the issues, go to the link shown below.

Related Articles

“GOP Field of Dreamers: The Libertarian and T-Paw,” (Red County, August 3, 2011)

For all the 2012 GOP candidates, it is the math that makes securing the nomination so complicated.  There will be 2,165 delegates to the
Republican National Convention in August in Tampa, Florida.  In order to win the Republican Nomination, a Presidential candidate must have 1,144 delegates.  To put this in perspective, only 112 delegates (less than 10%) have been won.  In fact, the candidate with the most delegates (former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney) has only 71 delegates.

This seems rather amazing given all of the media attention so far.  From the Iowa caucuses to the Florida primary seems like an eternity for most
voters, yet there are still 46 more states (plus American territories)
to go.  Already, there have been more swings than the crazy boat ride at
White Water park.  Just when the media thinks things are sewn up, voters
send the signal that they are not done yet.

Between the Florida Primary (held on January 31, 2012) and Super
Tuesday, there will be five caucuses - Nevada (28 delegates), Maine (24
delegates), Colorado (36 delegates), Minnesota (40 delegates) and
Washington (43 delegates) - and two primaries, Arizona (29 delegates)
and Michigan (30 delegates).  The five caucuses (before being
apportioned) decide just 171 delegates.  The primaries decide just 59.
The total is 230 delegates - if all the contests were winner-take all.
With the single exception of Arizona, they are not.  Instead, states
apportion between the winner and the other candidates receiving votes.

For example, if Governor Romney wins all of the caucuses in the same
margins as he did in 2008 (and they were healthy margins), he would only
have 135 delegates.

Basically, none of the candidates will have much more than about 200
delegates coming into Super Tuesday - less than 20% of the delegates
needed to win the nomination with 39 states plus territories to go.

Then comes March 6, 2012 - Super Tuesday - when eleven states decide.

Caucuses will be held in Alaska, Idaho, and North Dakota.  Combined,
those states pick 87 delegates.  To put that number in context, Georgia
alone picks 76 delegates.

The other big GOP delegate prizes on Super Tuesday are Ohio (with 66
delegates); Tennessee (58 delegates); Virginia (49 delegates); Oklahoma
(43 delegates); Massachusetts (41 delegates); Vermont (17 delegates);
and Wyoming (29 delegates).  In all, on Super Tuesday, 542 delegates are
at play - almost 5 times the number selected to date.

By the time Super Tuesday is over, 23 states will have held either
caucuses or primaries.  To say that Super Tuesday will have a major
impact, if not decide the GOP nomination, would be a gross
understatement.

There are a few possibilities for Super Tuesday.  One possibility is
that a single candidate wins all of the Super Tuesday states - unlikely.
The more likely scenario is that the states split.  If that happens, the
main focus will be on Ohio, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and GEORGIA.  A sweep
of these four states would be big.  They represent 243 delegates -
likely more than any one candidate will have heading into Super Tuesday.
Even then, it is a long way from locking down the nomination.

Just four days after Super Tuesday, on March 10, 2012, there are
caucuses in Guam (9 delegates), Kansas (40 delegates) and the Virgin
Islands (9 delegates).

Then, on March 13, 2012, there are more southern primaries in Alabama
(50 delegates) and Mississippi (40 delegates) and caucuses in Hawaii (20
delegates) and American Samoa (9 delegates).

Then the pace really picks up.  During the balance of March, there are 3
primaries.  In April, there are 9 with the biggest prize being Texas
with a whopping 155 delegates.  In all, 484 delegates are selected in
April.

May has 7 primaries with the biggest prize being California with another
whopping number - 172 delegates.  In all, 276 delegates get picked in
May.

The last GOP primary is on June 26, 2012 in Utah.

In 2008, the Democratic nomination contest between Senator Barack Obama
and Senator Hillary Clinton extended into June.  It ended up being
'Super delegates' that put Senator Obama over the top.  (Super delegates
are delegates by status, like party chairs, not election.)

Senator Clinton did not formally end her bid for the Democratic
nomination until June 7, 2008 - four days after winning the South Dakota
primary.

It is always possible that the Republicans might not pick their nominee
until they reach the Convention.  Insiders call this a 'brokered
convention.'  Basically, there are around 412 Super delegates (which
means they could put a candidate over the top or decide to be kingmakers
at the Convention).  While cable news producers dream of a 'brokered
convention,' it is very unlikely.  Instead, look for Georgia and the
other Super Tuesday states to set the stage for a GOP nominee.  Now
where did that prediction appear first?

News reports are blowing up over the internet that millionaire Donald Trump will be endorsing former House Speaker Newt Gingrich tomorrow in a Nevada press conference.

According to a local Las Vegas television station, 

"An advisor to Donald Trump says he will make a major announcement in Las Vegas tomorrow. Sources tell the 8 News NOW I-Team Trump will endorse Newt Gingrich…

Gingrich enters the Nevada Caucus after getting beat by Mitt Romney in Florida. He has spent the day in campaigning in Reno."

Endorsements  themselves don't mean a great deal....But this might at least diffuse the 3rd Party bomb that Trump has held over the GOP, should Gingrich get the nomination.  It also might mean some much needed campaign money for the Gingrich campaign.

UPDATE:  Donald Trump has now confirmed that he will be endorsing Mitt Romney instead of Newt because of his positions on OPEN and China. 

Ok....gang....Mitt is the front-runner....again....for now...Why the heck would he say something stupid like the dumb quote he made today about the poor?  In his latest goof, Romney was quoted as saying that he is not concerned about "the poor...they have a safety net...if it needs repair, I'll fix it."   Apparently Mitt has started channelling the ghosts of Ebenezer Scrooge and Thurston Howell III when he talks.  Doesn't this sound eerily close to "A Christmas Carol"?

First Collector: At this festive time of year, Mr. Scrooge, it is
  more than usually desirable that we should make some slight
  provision for the poor and destitute.
 Ebenezer: Are there no prisons?
First Collector: Plenty of prisons.
Ebenezer: And the union workhouses - are they still in operation?
First Collector: They are. I wish I could say they were not.
Ebenezer: Oh, from what you said at first I was afraid that something
  had happened to stop them in their useful course. Im very glad to
  hear it.

Don't forget the Thurston Howell III-like quotes like the time he joked with a group of unemployed people that he too was unemployed....  

Or who could forget the classic $10,000 bet he tried to make with then Presidential candidate Rick Perry...

Now I like to joke around and kid about things as well as anyone....but I'm not running for President of the United States.  The stakes in this election are WAY too serious to be clowning about the conditions of the poor or saying that "you are not concerned" about them.  I keep waiting for Romney to yell, "HEAVENS TO FORT KNOX!"

Ok...I've been wrong before and I will be again....But here's my predictions for tonights' Florida Primary:

Newt will fare much better than expected.  Santorum will do a little better than expected as well.  Romney may win this, but it will be a much closer race than most people think.  Almost every poll in South Carolina put Romney almost exactly where he ended up and the same was true in New Hampshire.  To me, this denotes that undecideds are going heavily toward Gingrich, or other candidates as was the case in New Hampshire.  In South Carolina, most of the polls showed Gingrich at least 8% lower than his actual vote totals, with the exception of the Public Policy Poll.  The Real Clear Politics average of all the polls showed Gingrich up 5% in South Carolina, when in fact he won by 12.6%.  Santorum was polled at 11.8%...and finished at 17%...Romney polled at 28.5% but finished below it at 27.8%.  Using the PPP as a guide, as it was the largest poll and most diverse if the pattern holds true for Romney he will finish with 39%.  Gingrich is already leading Tea Party members and Evangelicals, according to the notes in the PPP poll.  If that pattern holds true, then the same results will occur that happened in South Carolina.  Gingrich should increase his total from 31% to 38-39% making this too close to call.  I see Santorum going to 17% with Ron Paul getting about 6% of the total.   

PLEASE check out this very little know interview given a few days ago to Chrystia Freeland of Reuters.  Obama supporter and gazillionaire George Soros tells Freeland that Well, look, either you’ll have an extremist conservative, be it Gingrich or Santorum, in which case I think it will make a big difference which of the two comes in.  If it’s between Obama and Romney, there isn’t all that much difference except for the crowd that they bring with them."

Is there any more reason to vote for Newt Gingrich than a half endorsement by Soros of Romney?  What is Soros' motivation for speaking out for Romney like this?  Could Soros be trying to paint Romney as the alternative to President Obama because the Democrats know that a more Conservative candidate would be harder for Obama to beat in November?