First things first.

Mr. Santorum- mea culpa.

Just last week, I wrote an article asking you to please step aside, drop out of the Republican race, and let Newt and Mitt fight it out for the nomination. I cited your lackluster performances in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Nevada as reasons for you to step aside. You attempted to position yourself as the “Non-Romney” candidate, and lost that moniker to Newt Gingrich. All hope seemed lost, until the trifecta of caucuses/primaries/beauty contests on Tuesday, February 7, 2012. Only time will tell how we view your overwhelming wins in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri in one night (will you raise more money? Will people begin to think you can actually win? Will your national numbers go up? Will Newt supporters see you as a better anti-Romney and cede to you?). For now, sir, you made me eat crow. And for that, I salute you.

And now that my apology is done, back down to the real analysis of the “Santorum February Surprise”. Honestly, did anyone (other than Rick and his wife) see those three victories going squarely in Santorum’s win column? (If you are nodding your head yes, I must remind you that lying is a sin, punishable by death). What do these wins mean? Columns can be written on any number of issues that the three races show about Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and even Ron Paul. I’ll pass on that analysis, and fast forward all the way to August when the Republican Party comes together for their National Convention. When that convention is over, we will all know who the Republican ticket for President and Vice President will be. But before then, I have serious doubts we’ll have any clue. Let’s evaluate:

It takes 1,144 delegates to receive the Republican nomination for President. Thus far, we have 87 delegates pledged to Romney, 35 pledged to Santorum, 32 pledged to Gingrich, and 13 pledged to Paul. In February (and March 3rd), we have 126 delegates left up for grabs before the (not so) Super Tuesday prize of 437. When you look at the Super Tuesday states, it appeared Gingrich was poised to have a big southern day; at least until Santorum’s victories last night. The Super Tuesday states include Gingrich’s former state of Georgia, Tennessee, and Oklahoma three states he should do quite well in. On the flip side, Romney has Massachussetts, Vermont, and Idaho that day as well; states not nearly as rich with delegates, but likely wins for Romney nonetheless. Let us not forget Virginia- a state where Gingrich failed to get his name on the ballot, and looked to be a motherlode state for Romney delegates. But as Lee Corso says, “Not so fast, my friends.” Along comes Santorum to siphon more votes.

So, Super Tuesday may muddy up the waters even more. And what after that? There are a smattering of states that range from the South (Alabama with 50 delegates), to the Midwest (Illinois and Wisconsin, with 69 and 42 delegates, respectively), the Northeast (New York State with 95 delegates), the Rust Belt (Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania with 72 delegates), and the delegate rich states of anomalic sizes (Texas with 155 delegates and California with 172 of them).

You see how the map favors all three/four of the candidates in some way? Randy Evans has written time and time again on this site about the race heading past Super Tuesday, and I am beginning to agree with him. In fact, I now think that the brokered convention the media talks about is inevitable. I see it playing out like this: Ron Paul will have about 325 delegates by August, and Santorum, Romney and Gingrich will have 750, 725, and 450. In all honesty, I don’t know who will have what number, but I am certain that Romney will be one of the two 700 clubbers. Which puts Gingrich and Santorum in a unique bartering position. It actually puts all three in a unique position, with a lot of who/what, etc.

Bottom line: I see either two of these three top Republican Candidates running on the same ticket together, or a brokered convention where someone like Governor John Kasich of Ohio or Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana could shine.

Who knows?

But again, Mr. Santorum…my apologies, sir. Go do your thing.