Two polls just released from different polling agencies show that former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is surging in popularity in both of the upcoming Southern states. 

In Mississippi, The American Research Group shows that Gingrich is holding an 4 point advantage over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

Gingrich 35%
Romney 31%
Santorum 20%
Paul 7%

Over in Alabama the field is much tighter, but Rasmussen is showing that Gingrich has taken a 1% lead over Governor Romney and a 2% lead over former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum.

Gingrich 30%
Romney 29%
Santorum 28%
Paul 7%

Could Lazurus rise again?

 A lot of things have transpired over the last 48 hours to completely change the dynamics of the race for the Republican nomination:

1.  Rick Santorum was declared the winner in the Iowa Caucuses showing that Mitt Romney is in fact beatable.

2.  Rick Perry has bailed out of the Presidential race, endorsing Newt Gingrich, and saying that he will actively campaign for the Speaker.

   3.  The most current polls in South Carolina show that Romney's support is starting to erode, while the same polls are showing that Gingrich's is growing daily.  Four polls, Clemson/Palmetto, Public Policy Polling,  Rasmussen and Insider Advantage,  show Gingrich ahead of Romney and the rest of the field.

4. Newt's ex-wife, along with the help of ABC News, tried to torpedo his candidacy with a last minute interview that was a complete rehash of a story already published and out for several months.

5.  The last debate before todays South Carolina primary was clearly won by everyone in the room, except for Mitt Romney, who at best debated just above Texas Congressman Ron Paul.  Further, Romney has fumbled the ball completely on what is supposed to be his strength: his business career.  Bain Capital has been a tremendous thorn in his side and now comes a report that Romney has put millions of dollars into Cayman Island banks.  I sincerely think there are more people who are concerned about Romney's business problems than they are about Newt's marital problems.

6.  In an interview yesterday with Laura Ingraham, Romney stated flatly that the economy has done better since President Obama has been at the helm.  Listen below at about the 5:45 mark.  Do you think Obama might use that in a campaign ad comes this fall?

With all of that being said, the path to the Republican nomination just became a lot clearer for Newt Gingrich to pull of one of the biggest upsets in political history.

Should Gingrich win South Carolina, he will get a huge boost for the Florida primary scheduled for January 31st.  Should Gingrich be able to capitalize on it and win the Sunshine State, his stock will go up infinitely heading into Super Tuesday.  This is all about delegate count however, with the nominee needing 1144 total to claim the nomination.  There are several smaller contests in between Florida and Super Tuesday in which Romney and Ron Paul will probably score well, however, should Rick Santorum give up his quest after Florida, the Conservative vote will no longer be split which will give Gingrich clear victories in a few of the more Conservative states.  At this point, Mitt Romney's best friend is Rick Santorum...so long as he stays in the race.


Super Tuesday itself will clear up a lot of the murkiness surrounding the nomination with Georgia and Tennessee being two of the biggest prizes on that day.  Both will go to Gingrich with Romney taking Massachusetts, Vermont and possibly Ohio.  Look for Ron Paul to take Virginia as he and Romney will be the only candidates on the ballot there and I smell a huge protest vote coming against Romney.  North Dakota and Oklahoma are up in the air.

Romney, and even Paul for that matter, have much better nationwide organizations than Gingrich.  There's no doubt about that.  It has to be remembered however, that Gingrich has been in the political game for a long time and there are a lot of politicians out there who still owe him political debts, Georgia Governor Nathan Deal being one of them.  Deal was a very early supporter of The Speaker and has stood by him when many others have jumped ship.  Deal's loyalty comes from the fact that when Deal switched parties, Gingrich was Speaker of the House at the time and allowed Deal to keep his Congressional tenure that he built up while being a Democrat.  I promise you that there are similar stories nationwide that will help Gingrich build a nationwide network very quickly after people realize that Romney isn't going to be walking away with the nomination and also realize that Gingrich is indeed electable and that Romney has as many liabilities as he has assets.  

For many, many years the California primary has been an insignificant entity when it comes to the GOP nomination, however since the delegate count of 1144 may not be reached by any candidate by the time of the California Primary on June 5th, this may well be the deciding factor unless one of the top two candidates fold up their tents by then.  (The fact that Michael Reagan, President Reagan's son, just endorsed Gingrich probably won't hurt Newt's chances in California either..)   If Speaker Gingrich is in the top two at that point, I sincerely doubt you will see him fold.  I do however see the possibility of a Gingrich/Romney ticket that will be very similar to Reagan/Bush in 1980.  George H.W. Bush was the absolute last person that Ronald Reagan wanted on his team.  (He actually wanted Paul Laxalt from Nevada.)  I hope that if I'm correct the Republican party will have the same results:  A landslide victory over a very unpopular incumbent President.

We have FINALLY gotten into 2012 and are right at the beginning of the primary season with the Iowa Caucuses behind us, the New Hampshire primary yielded little surprises and the South Carolina Primary lurks in the shadows of the very near future.  The field of candidates have predictably dwindled and will continue skinnying down until we are left with our nominee to run against Obama.  Tim Pawlenty was the first casualty of Iowa after the Ames Straw Poll, followed by Herman Cain who withdrew amidst false charges of sexual misconduct, Gary Johnson left the Republican race to tilt at a Libertarian windmill, and Michele Bachmann quit when she drew less than exciting numbers in the Iowa Caucuses.  I say Rick Perry will be the next victim after the South Carolina primary, followed by Jon Huntsman after Florida, leaving us with Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, most of which will remain until the bitter end.  So where does that leave our party as the whole Presidential sweepstakes roars into the Palmetto state? 

Mitt Romney has been the steady candidate throughout this topsy-turvy contest that would make Captain Ahab seasick with all its' ups and downs.  He's consistently been polling around the 25-35% mark and is at times a very strong frontrunner and at other times shows the strength of a wallflower at the prom.  Although I would certainly support his candidacy should he get the nomination, I feel that his nomination for our party is a mistake.  Governor Romney is a throwback to some of our failed candidates who got the nomination either because they were a 'good soldier' who had run for the nomination before and lost (Bob Dole, John McCain, George H.W. Bush) or they would be able to 'bring the independents to the party'.  (Dole, McCain and Bush the Elder still fit the mold but you can now add Gerald Ford into it the cast.)  Governor Romney falls into both catagories as well.  As Yogi Berra would say, "It's like deja vu all over again."

My opinion is that the strongest candidate that the Republican Party could field would be the most Conservative one; the one who appeals to the real base of the party and not the fringe as Ron Paul does.  This candidate would be one who would be more in the image of Republicans who actually won the White House in recent years:  Bush the Younger and Ronald Reagan, both of whom if you recall your history, were called too right wing and too volatile and that they could in no way capture those elusive independents that seem to always be out there.  Let me tell you a little secret:  Those elusive independents are part of the massive number of unemployed workers who are fed up with President Obama just as much as the solid base of the Republican Party.    Playtime is over now that Governor Romney has won both Iowa and New Hampshire.  The real race begins on January 21st when our neighbors in South Carolina pick a Conservative choice amidst the chaff. 

In my past columns I have made it very clear that I have been hoping that choice would be first Herman Cain and now former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and I still feel that way, but I will say that our party needs to get behind one Conservative and ride him all the way to The White House while leaving the others that have little chance behind.  I'm certainly not for calling names and labeling the other candidates as this always leaves a bitter taste in a failed candidates' supporters mouth, however the Conservatively-challenged candidates need to move on and hope that they will at least garner a Vice-Presidential nod as "Second Banana" on the future ticket as Bush the Elder did in 1980. 

For the record there is only one RINO (Republican In Name Only) in the Presidential race as Texas Congressman Ron Paul has certainly proved himself to be a Libertarian or Constitution Party member more so than as a member of the GOP.  Further, Congressman Paul and a great many of his supporters are completely bastardizing the Republican Party as they have absolutely no plans to support anyone with the exception of the good doctor, yet want to try and infiltrate the rank and file by insisting that he and they are the only true Conservatives out there and that the party has left them.  Notice I said a good many...Not all.  There are many of Congressman Paul's supporters that truly think he's a Conservative alternative to the rest of the field.  I hope they wake up before it's too late.  I've heard more than once that we need to have a detente' or a peaceful coexistence with Paul and his supporters in fear that he may run as a 3rd party candidate or that they will do nothing to help the GOP comes November.  I can tell you right now that if you ask most of Congressman Paul's supporters right now if they would vote for or help the GOP nominee if it were anyone other than the Congressman, you would get a flat NO.  Then you would get preached to about the virtue of principle over party.  It's standard spiel from the Ron Paul playbook.  If the GOP is to beat President Obama in November, we will be doing it without their help.  Get used to it as nothing that we do or say to welcome them or alienate them will change their collective minds. 

The future of our party rests with the Conservative base who believe that abortion is wrong, taxation in its current state is unjust, government is too big and is the problem not the solution, Israel is our friend and Hamas, the PLO, Muslim Brotherhood, Hugo Chavez and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are our enemies, a strong offense is a good defense when it comes to foreign policy, Iran shouldn't be trusted to manufacture cap guns much less nuclear weapons,  anchor babies are precious gifts from our Creator but are nonetheless not our responsibility to spend tax payer money on and that our borders should be secure by any reasonable means, and that marriage should be between a man and a woman.  If you agreed with most of that, to paraphrase Jeff Foxworthy, "You may be a Conservative Republican."